File Name: nuclear signalling india and pakistan .zip
The flight-testing of the kilometer or mile Hatf-IX, or Nasr, ballistic missile in April has renewed controversy and debate about strategic stability and nuclear weapons in South Asia. This publication attempts to analyze various facets of the debate about tactical nuclear weapons TNWs following the introduction of the Nasr battlefield ballistic missile. The first section surveys different schools of thought in Pakistan about the issue of TNWs.
- Pakistan and weapons of mass destruction
- War over water
- India–Pakistan nuclear escalation: where could it lead?
This article offers a discussion of nuclear doctrines and their significance for war, peace and stability between nuclear-armed states.
Pakistan and weapons of mass destruction
Pakistan is one of nine states to possess nuclear weapons. As pointed out by Houston Wood, "The most difficult step in building a nuclear weapon is the production of fissile material";   as such, this work in producing fissile material as head of the Kahuta Project was pivotal to Pakistan developing the capability to detonate a nuclear bomb by the end of Moderate uranium enrichment for the production of fissile material was achieved at KRL by April Pakistan's nuclear weapons development was in response to the loss of East Pakistan in 's Bangladesh Liberation War. Bhutto called a meeting of senior scientists and engineers on 20 January , in Multan , which came to known as "Multan meeting".
The Bharatiya Janata Party BJP has typically relied on spreading hatred against Pakistan during election campaigns to get maximum right-wing extremist popular support. The ongoing elections are a factor behind the whole debacle of his obsession. In the same vein, Modi has also politicized nuclear weapons, pushing this button in elections gatherings. In the contemporary strategic discourse of South Asia, it is assumed by Indian strategists that Pakistan possesses the capability to respond to any Indian threat conventional and unconventional by using its tactical nuclear-capable missiles once the threshold is crossed. The whole episode of February-March did not prove to be a politico-military success for Modi and the BJP, and the credibility of Indian claims was questioned both from within India and from around the world. The humiliation which Modi faced in the aftermath of this crisis damage the BJP in Indian domestic politics and harmed India at the international level. Possession of nuclear weapons by a state comes with a great burden of responsibility, based on the nature of weapons.
War over water
Since achieving independence in , the relations between India and Pakistan have been such that the talks of trade, cooperation and peace have often taken place parallel to the threats of war. They have fought four wars and on more than one occasion mobilised their militaries with a credible threat of war. Since the early s, the insurgency in Kashmir and terrorist incidents in other parts of India have affected bilateral relations in a profound way. Serious terrorist attacks in India causing huge loss of life, such as the Mumbai bombings in and Mumbai attacks in , have often led to the loss of public support for dialogue with Pakistan. Groups targeting the peace process between India and Pakistan have exploited this reality to the extent of setting up a trend.
Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan have been involved in several intense crises in recent years. During these crises however it is not simply the presence of a threat which defines their disputes. Analysts tend to discuss the threats issued by the parties during crises however these crises have also featured signals of reassurance. Reassurance is an integral part of deterrence. For deterrence to work, retaliation must be credible. Credibility, in turn, rests on both capability and intention.
The tense stand-off between India and Pakistan has cast the shadow of nuclear conflict across the globe. But, even if both see sense and pull back from the first war between nuclear powers, there are concerns that relations are so soured that Delhi and Pakistan might resort to conflict by other means. In particular, there are worrying reports suggesting that India could cut off Pakistan's water supply. The Indus water treaty, drawn up in , under the auspices of the World Bank, divided the distribution of water from the six rivers that run down from Tibet through India to the shared Indus Basin. India did not revoke the accord during either the or the war with Pakistan. In raising the treaty as an issue India may be signalling how deeply angry with Pakistan it is. But Delhi would be wrong even to contemplate such an action.
India–Pakistan nuclear escalation: where could it lead?
Islamabad has reduced military and intelligence cooperation and demanded an end to drone attacks. Does this mean that the two countries are headed for a messy divorce? I think not.
In extremis, if both states adhere to the threats issued in their doctrines a Pakistan-supported militant attack on Indian soil could escalate into an all-out nuclear exchange. It is a development that has been met with great concern by many analysts for its detrimental impact on deterrence stability. Since the doctrines are believed to have become operational, at least four incidents occurred which could have sparked this cross-domain escalation spiral. And yet, crisis behaviour proved vastly different from what doctrine predicted. What does this say about deterrence stability on the subcontinent?
Есть, но отец ее заблокировал. Он думает, что я балуюсь наркотиками. - А это не так? - спросил Беккер холодно, глядя на ее припухший локоть.
Рядом с собором на сто двадцать метров вверх, прямо в занимающуюся зарю, поднималась башня Гиральда.
- Итак, вы полагаете, что Северная Дакота - реальное лицо. - Боюсь, что. И мы должны его найти.
Но он очень толстый. Жена отказывает ему… ну, вы понимаете. - Беккер не мог поверить, что это говорит он. Если бы Сьюзан слышала меня сейчас, - подумал. - Я тоже толстый и одинокий.